It really doesn't even matter that one is currently very good or not.  I think what really matters is being open to other ways, and, tips from pros.

  Still on vacation short???

Sparky no offence, but you seem like the guy that would get very mad to get aces cracked VS a 60%+ pre-flop odds caller.

   Actually Jeremy, I only become truly pissed off, when beat by superior holdings from a player I thought I had a read on.  Even then, it is at my self for not knowing I am beat, as I see it MY GAME is the most adjustable variable in any game.  All I strive for is maximum chip extraction from EVERY hand I play, and, minimal loss for the ones I have to let go, (don't we all?).

  Don't answer that last one as I have figured that out, NO we ALL don't really care that much.  I was recently at a loooong running side game after an unusually early exit, when the floorman told us 10 more minutes, one of the 2 short stacks complained to him that I was "raising every pot". So completely oblivious to the fact that my chip lead was so large she needed me to stack off to her for her to stand any chance whatsoever of winning.  This was elsewhere, and those points would be enough to qualify her for the monthly game. I gave her what she wanted and told her "YOU LOSE",  "I'll be at the bar FOLD ME!"  That bewildered look told me she didn't know she could knock out the short stack, and I still had her doubled up!  Those kinds of things annoy me, if you don't care to pay attention, go home with some other Old Bitties and play for match sticks, "gotta gamble" but don't care to pay attention to those pesky details? play lotto.

"When my money is out there, it's out there, everybody knows that.  So, if your going to mess with me, it's going to cost you."... Amir Vahedy

  That is my mantra, it does lead to some early exits from time to time, but, that is on me.  My game revolves around mercilessly betting at NEARLY EVERY pot I am in (not that many as I am not continually loose, only when I feel the situation dictates). Knowing when to fold to better holdings. 

  Know how you can walk into a game of 20 - 40 players that you are familiar with and pick 1/2 of the final table players in advance???  I'm one of those players, I don't have any complex, I just "get lucky" at the right time most of the time.

 "Luck is the residue of intelligent design" ... Branch Rickey... for those of you in K.C.  that means, study, learn, and, work hard at it, and, you will "get lucky" too.

  Good advice for success can be found everywhere, here's some very sound MICKEY MOUSE advice..."Around here, however , we don't look backwards for very long.  We keep moving forward, opening up new doors and doing new things, because we're curious... and curiosity keeps leading us down new paths."... Walt Disney.

  That last one lends itself to 1/2 of the players that know me thinking that I am a raging maniac when I play, and, the other 1/2 thinking that I am so calculating they call me "the book" behind my back.  The ones that think I'm thinking, ask me what I'm up to tonight before the game as I enjoy sharing strategy before a game with good players. If I see the table texture coming together, and, I think it's called for I may take a call, and, catch philosophy for a given fish or group.  I may have taken some bad beat lately, and predetermine that hyper- aggression is my plan.  A plan I will throw out at a moments notice if it is failing me.  After all I can always "get lucky".

                    Sparky

A few days after the last post she and I played in the same 27 person Full Tilt game. She had 9 pairs and 4 full houses and finished 3rd. I had 1 full house, 3 pairs. Finished 2nd.

Then in a live game after that, I was down to around $2000 and  knocked out on the button with A9 of diamonds with 2 9s on the board. Nailed by a full house on the River. That happens, we all know. But check this out:

My wife was very short stacked in the same tournament. At a different table. I know that she almost always will have the cards to win a hand when she gets very low on chips, especially if she is blinded all-in. She will win around 80% of the time in that situation, and that is no exaggeration.Ask around. She could be completely away from the table, in the car, at the mall, and it would not matter.  Pure cards. But this is better.

She was down to $2500 and dealing. Blinds were $100 and $200. 4 people go all-in before the bet gets to her. She has Pocket Rockets! What more could you possibly want? When was the last time any of you out in radioland had that happen? Of course, she quintuples up plus getting the blinds.  That beats every other amazing stroke of luck she has ever gotten. Except for finding me.

There will, no doubt, be more.

 

RD 

On the luck part.

"Skillful Players often moan because there's too much luck involved in poker. They feel it give those "Suckers" too much of a chance. But those players wouldn't be there if it weren't for this luck factor. Just why would they play if they knew for sure they'd lose?"      Doyle Brunson

 "Most people underrate luck in the short run and overrate it in the long run. In other words, a good player could have a losing week but could never have a losing year."    David Sklansky

 "Amateurs overemphasize luck and pros overempasize skill. It takes both to win"    Tex Sheahan

"Lucky is winning in spite of all the reasons why you shouldn't"   L.P. Roach 

"Most people are dogmatically convinced that luck plays the most important role in winning and losing. The prevalence of that flimsy theory is the greatest thing that ever happened to gamblers"  Tex Sheahan.

Keep in mind that I'm just guessing here because I'm too good to ever read a poker book. 

 AP

Ps.  Sparky, I will tell you the same thing I have told many people on this board. Judge your game by the decisions that you make and not the outcome of the hand. If you are making the right decisions and the proper plays you will come out ahead in the long run. As long as you are working at getting better and can be honest in the judgement of your own plays. You will become a better player. This game is about making the right decision over 90% of the time. You are also hoping that you survive your wrong ones.

All the chips are mine. I have just been nice enough not to take them yet.

Red Dog, 

 I have allot of respect for your post but I have to disagree with you on the last one. A lucky player may be able to beat you in a hand and may be able to win a tournament, but if you follow your own examples. A bad player will not beat a better player consistently over the course of a year. They may win a hand or even a tournament with these rapid blind levels. To me this is the same as a guy that just makes one shot against Lebron or wins one hole against Tiger. The longer it is played out the more the advantage goes to the better player. The other reason some players seem to get lucky more. Is because they put themselves in more hands then they should. By making bad calls and staying in hands longer. That gives them the chance. I try my best to not get into those situations. I may only be in that situation once or twice a month and miss both times. The other player may get into that situation 60 to 70 times a month. So they do hit them about 25 times. Are they lucky? Or is it just an example of the numbers. Pre flop 2 high cards vs. 2 low cards are roughly a 60% to 40% favorite. I know this is not going to happen but I would like to see every hand your wife is dealt over a 6 month period. The good, the bad and the ugly and then look at the percentages of those hands vs. total hands dealt. We can then match those numbers against the percentages. Just keep in mind that the bigger the sample the more the numbers will ring true. So just play good smart fundamental poker over the long run and you will be a consistent winner. If that does not work then just hope you get lucky.

  AP     

All the chips are mine. I have just been nice enough not to take them yet.

Both of your responses are great. Where is Register? His are always as well. 

Yes, I agree that skill is going to win in the long run. And avoiding getting into bad situations in the first place is a good idea, as well as betting aggressively when the cards do come, even though that may be too seldom at times. Additionally, position play is a way to make some extra chips when you are card dead, until the good cards do show up. And I do agree with AP Mike that good play will win out over time. But you both know that absolutely clueless players win all the time, especially the short blind tournaments. They never would win long blind, multi-day ones. Almost never. Moneymaker is a rare example. He definitely was not clueless, but did get very, very lucky many, many times on his road to fame and fortune. Of course, for ANYONE to win any relatively big tournament that lasts more than 3 hours, they have to get very lucky at least 3 or 4 times. I think that is unavoidable.   

But it is also true that there are those who get better cards. Period. Then they have to play them well. When I illustrate my wife's luck with cards, I compare them to an equal time that I play. It's always a couple of hours or so, if it's on Full Tilt. NEVER has she gotten worse starting hands, or fewer flushes or straights or trips or full houses than I have. However, I have a tendency to get higher finishes because I play with more aggression. I also get knocked out earlier more often because of that, then go to another game so that the time comparison is still valid. 

To her credit, she is finishing better now than she was because of my constant badgering for her to bet her hands. You can't bet 50 chips into a 500 chip pot and expect anyone to fold, because of pot odds. You might as well hand someone a free card and say, "Go ahead and outdraw me." That's what she was doing, until just recently. Problem is, she almost always, amazingly, gets away with it. Wish I had not told her to make pot-sized bets. Maybe she'll ignore it, like everything else I tell her. I can only hope. 

After I finished 2 hours or so today, the song They're Coming to Take Me Away was rattling through my head. They're Coming to Take Me Away Ha Ha Ho Ho to the Funny Farm . . then I ripped my clothes off and ran screaming down the street. This is the last time I'll make this comparison, then I'd rather talk about poker strategy in general. But I have to get it out of my system, although it will happen again and again and . . . . 

First of all she does not stay in more hands pre-flop. She is relatively tight. What happens is that she gets lots and lots of pairs and Big Slicks and suited Aces and pretty good suited cards so that she can stay. She also gets extremely lucky from the Big Blind, especially if no one has raised. So it isn't about her speculating too often, or more than anyone else. In fact, it is much less.

Today she got 15 pairs. From these she got 3 trips, 10 2 pairs, and 6 full houses. (One FH was from Sparky's dueces and one from 4s} How often does that happen to you? She got 5 flushes, 2 straights and 2 Big Slicks.

In the same amount of time, I had 7 pairs, 0 trips, 0 2 pairs, 1 flush (lost to a bigger one), 0 straights, 0 full houses, and 1 Big Slick. Can't tell you how many suited aces and kings I had before the flop, none of which became flushes. She can stay on 5 6 of hearts or J 9 of diamonds and the chances are pretty good she'll get a flush or straight, at least.

It is just that she gets good pre-flop cards that turn into a lot more. Just thinking about it makes me want to make another screaming dash down the street and around the block in the rain. Again.

Once, a few years ago, we were playing heads-up just to pass the time. She got 6 straights in a row. 6 straights in 6 hands! You must believe me. Somebody has to believe me.

I feel like Sam Kineson. 

It would be useful to discuss stuff that works in tournaments, live or otherwise in future posts.  I actually won one the other night. About 20 people. And referencing the above about getting lucky to win, I probably had 4 hands that could have very easily lost. Now I'm gonna try for the impossible 3 in a row. Still haven't heard from anyone who has done that.

Before I sign off, I saw this hand the other day on Full Tilt. It wasn't necessarily a bad beat, just a very interesting Hollywood-type outcome.

One guy had Ace of hearts and Jack of spades. Another guy had a pair of Kings. Both bet heavily.

The flop comes King Queen Deuce of Spades. More heavy betting. The Turn is the Ace of Spades. Both all in. The River was a Queen. Brutal. 

 

Red Dog,

This is what is wrong with poker questions. So much more information is needed to answer this.

What is my read on this player is he aggresive, is he timid or anything in between?

How does this player see my play? (same as above)

Has this player changed gears at all since it has gotten down to heads up? Is he pushing or trying to protect his lead?

Has this player shown that he likes to check raise or has he shown that he likes to chase his draws?

Has either player taken a bad beat or been bluffed in the last couple of hands? (What is their mental state at this time?)

Would this player make a big call with just top pair?

What is my feeling on my ability to just flat out play this guy?

How much time till the next blind raise and what will they be?

Does this person have a bunch of friends watching him play?

Is this player tired, drunk or anything else that might alter his mind set?

Do I have any visual tells on this guy?

What type of hands has this guy shown down that he plays?

Can this guy just flat out play me?

And many others.

So I would take all of the information into account and then go with the best course of action. If I could just flat out play him I would keep the pot a little smaller just in case they hit a bigger straight or a runner runner flush or Full House. If I think they will make a move on the pot I will try to bet an amount that I think might trick him into doing it. My other course of action is to beat amounts that will make him pot commited after the river if he has any part of it. If I like the cards I see on the turn and the river. A $500 bet into a $800 pot should work. A call would then make a pot $1800 going into the turn. With you still having $4100 left. If the turn card comes up a blank No bigger straight or pairing the board. I would then look at firing $1500 in to the $1800 pot. Leaving you $2600 To fire on the river into a $4800 pot. If no 3 to flush, bigger straight or Full house have developed. If they have then just trust your reads and either Fire away or then just check behind the guy because the pot is a good enough size. 

Not sure this is what you wanted but just some of the thing that run through my head in these situations.

AP

All the chips are mine. I have just been nice enough not to take them yet.

Well to me this is as easy as it gets. You have been playing with this guy and feel you have a decent read on him. So if you think he slow played A-K or has K-9 you fold. If not you reraise all in. I guess my other question is that you are at a 3 to 1 chip disadvantage before the hand started and you limp in from the small blind. When you are in that position I see only two options first is to raise and try to get a feel for their hand strength and have a chance to steal the blind or you fold. I really do not like limping in that situation. They can then put major pressure on you.  Even if you double up it is just back to even and if you can not make a call with a marginal hand then you are folding almost 10% of your chip stack.

All the chips are mine. I have just been nice enough not to take them yet.

AP, thanks for the commentary. I was trying to double up, and I know it was somewhat risky, so I took that chance. He did end up with K 9, by the way.

 

But here is reason one billion why it is quite difficult to win 3 in a row, as I've been saying. In live games and on Full Tilt I have been doing pretty well lately. Won 4 out of the last 7 on Full Tilt and won a first and second out of the last 3 live games. So that's OK. None were games with 50 people, however. Somewhere between 9 and 27. I won two in a row last night, June 11, on Full Tilt. An 18 and 27 person game, respectively. So, I thought I'd shoot for 3 in a row tonight. Got down to 4 of us left. I was on the button with 4 5 of spades, and nobody raised so I decided to call. The flop comes 5 6 7 with 2 diamonds, one spade. I raise double the pot. The only other stayer goes all in. Uh oh, he has 8 9, I thought, but gotta call. But what did he have? A 4 5. Pretty lucky, wasn't I? They were the 4 5 of diamonds and he hit a straight flush on the turn. I tried. An ironically bad outcome, wasn't it?

Trying for 3 in a row again. Next time.

 

RD 

AP, thanks for the commentary. I was trying to double up, and I know it was somewhat risky, so I took that chance. He did end up with K 9, by the way.

 

But here is reason one billion why it is quite difficult to win 3 in a row, as I've been saying. In live games and on Full Tilt I have been doing pretty well lately. Won 4 out of the last 7 on Full Tilt and won a first and second out of the last 3 live games. So that's OK. None were games with 50 people, however. Somewhere between 9 and 27. I won two in a row last night, June 11, on Full Tilt. An 18 and 27 person game, respectively. So, I thought I'd shoot for 3 in a row tonight. Got down to 4 of us left. I was on the button with 4 5 of spades, and nobody raised so I decided to call. The flop comes 5 6 7 with 2 diamonds, one spade. I raise double the pot. The only other stayer goes all in. Uh oh, he has 8 9, I thought, but gotta call. But what did he have? A 4 5. Pretty lucky, wasn't I? They were the 4 5 of diamonds and he hit a straight flush on the turn. I tried. An ironically bad outcome, wasn't it?

Trying for 3 in a row again. Next time.

 

RD 

We know that poker, like all gambling or card games of skill are comprised of streaks. Nothing is totally predictable, except like a lot of you say, the best players will win out in the end, if the time is long enough. 

Anyway, things can go well, and turn horribly bad for a while. Getting beat on the River is common, and there are a lot of bad beats as a result. I know how to figure he odds of getting nailed on the River (outs times 2 plus a little.) But what are the odds of getting nailed with runner runner? Isn't it about 2 or 3%? And what are the odds of it happening to knock you out of 4 tournaments in a row?

Examples:

You have Q 5 heads up and flop Q 5 3. You bet big and it ends up all in. The other guy has Q 4. His chances are slim and none. Runner runner 6 7.

Your opponent goes all in with K 4 suited. You have Aces. The last 2 cards? K 4.

You flop 2 pair, 8s and 7s. You make a monster bet. There is one caller. He has Ace 10. The last 2 cards? Ace and 10.

You flop 2 pairs, 6s and 7s. You make another very large bet. One caller. He gets runner runner inside straight.

What are the odds? I try not put myself in the position to have to catch runner runner, but believe me, many do.

These were all Full Tilt, and I recognize people play a lot looser. But there is still such a thing as probability that should kick in. You'd think.

Same day in a live game, heads up. It's a low buy-in game. Fairly even stacks. I get Ace 8 of diamonds and make a $25,000 raise on a $4000-$8000 blind. Other guy calls. King 8 3 flops, with 2 clubs and a spade. Other guy checks, I go all in, he calls. He has J of clubs and 9 of spades. Why did he call, you ask?

Bottom line: He gets runner runner flush. Yes, it happens. And yes, to everyone. It's just the degree. It can be tiresome when it happens 5 times in 5 consecutive tournaments, and you know it's comin'.

See how this could possibly get on your nerves.     

Time to get on a good streak. Time to get my mind right, Luke.

 

RD 

   No R.D.  I am   "Sparky 8811" on all my internet poker accounts.   I have seeen as many variations of RedDog as I have of Sparky, what's your moniker exactly??

   Full Tilt, Bodog, Pokerstars, Pure Play, NBC Sports poker room too.  ALL Sparky8811

A report of almost winning 3 tournaments in a row. Had 2, then down to heads-up on a 3rd one, had AJ suited against a pair of 4s and the 4s held up in an all-in moment.. He had a few more chips, so I got second. No bad luck or suckouts, just lost a race.

Glad to report that wife's incredible winning almost 90% of the hands when she is down to nothing phenomenon is still alive and well. In about 1/2 hour today she was down to less than 500 chips quite a number of times on Full Tilt and involuntarily all-in 4 times. On 9 occasions she won the hand, as is usual when she must win or be  eliminated. She had  A5 suited twice that turned into a full house and trips, respectively, 3 flushes, an inside straight on the river,  a 5 6 in the hole flopped a straight, and when she had absolutely no choice but to call with 52, got 2 pair on the river. During the same stretch of time, I got one flush. That's it. None of the straights, full houses, 2 pairs or trips.

What usually happens when she wins these hands is that she will invariably get a large pair immediately following it and catch trips. She did that 3 times. She got second in the 6 person tournament in which she was playing. I got 3rd in the 27 person game in which I was involved while she was making her every two minute announcement of an incredible hand she had.

Earlier in the day we were playing heads-up, starting with 7,000 chips each with blinds at 50 and 100. I got her down to around 500 chips. I got trips, ironically. I bet all-in and she got runner runner flush to win, as usual. Then she got flushes 2 of the next 3 hands. The game is still going.

I know you all still think this is an exaggeration, and that cards are just random, but I have a lot of people who are disbelieving witnesses. It is a true, unexplainable phenomenon that just keeps going. It has nothing to do with playing cleverly or bluffing or betting in any way; the cards just show up when they need to. It's truly incredible.

Hold on there. It is now July 26 and my lovely wife may have set a record. She hadn't done too well for the past few days, and in live games, but just now she played one on Full Tilt and in no more than 20 minutes had 2 flushes, (not too unusual for her because she is the flush queen), and 4 full houses. Only 4. In 20 minutes. I'm sure that is common for all of you out there, isn't it?