Shortround
Posted: Thu, 03/26/2009 - 4:31pm

My informal study over the years leads me to believe that once you reach a mass of 50 to 60 percent donkeys in a texas hold-em tournament your chances of winning using standard percentages and conventional theory gets pretty slim.

If you go in with a lot of chips even with 3 to 1 advantage every time (as tends to happen against donkeys) you'll be doing it so many times that sooner or later that will kill you.

I do have a different strategy for that situation though. I sit back and let the donks attack and kill each other for maybe the first hour or so and then take on the remaining ones.  My theory is I'd rather take on a few donkeys with significantly larger chip stacks than mine than take on a hundred with stacks equal to mine.  I don't really have the data to back it up but it works better for me than other tactics I've tried.

Anybody else got a plan they favor?

Hmmmm,  maybe that's why Helmuth always arrives a half hour or more late.  Probably not.

 



sparky8811
Donkey management.
Posted: Thu, 03/26/2009 - 6:36pm

   Like any other warm blooded animal, donkeys have MOODS, and, can act with a pack mentality.  I think Rick, if, the donkeys are mercilessly bluffing back and, forth your plan is Ideal.  I have seen them show fragments of intellect at times, and actually take turns accosting the tight players.  If they are staying out of each others way you MUST get in there if a pot can be re-raised to achieve one on one isolation, then play your normal game.  I'm laughing to myself when I read this, what's (or should I say) Where is the motivation for your diatribe coming from?  No WAIT gimme 3 guesses, 1 - J.B.Reys "Donkey House"    2 - The Bean House corral  3 - or was it the Mon. Donk Fest at the Phoenix. ???

  The first 2 are ripe for your style advance without playing ANY, but, the best of cards.  #3 However requires more of my style.  Bitch slap those donkeys hard every time there is action, and, you have a good hand, as there is a 50/50 chance they have squat, when raising, and the others will get out of their way once an outsider comes in hard. That crowd is especially fond of the slow play and, unless provoked, may not reveal the true strength of their hand until you are on the hook.  You have to remember that 18 out of 22 there, are related, neighbors,old school chums, and, they have no qualms about staring off the buddy or wife when it's a strong hand.  Use the looks and tells from others at the table to help asses the true strength right off of the bat.

  My thought is 1 + 2 are the easiest to make the final table against.  #3 is probably easier to win outright if you make the final table.

     "It's better to burn out than fade away"   Sparky



Shortround
I think you're right on target
Posted: Fri, 03/27/2009 - 11:47am

Your numbers 1 and 2 are pretty much on target (and your analysis on all are good) but actually last night was kind of the "topper" and it was at That One Place.

I'm short stack at a table of 5. I'm dealing and see pocket Jacks.  I go all in.  Reasons: JJ not bad for a table of five, I've got the best position at the table, I don't want anybody to draw since a Q, K, or A on the flop would be a disaster.

I get one caller.  He shows 9 4 offsuit.

Flops a 4 on the flop and another on the river.  I'm toast for the evening.

 I think I may take 2 or 3 weeks off to get my head back on straight after so many beats like this in a row. I'm getting scared to play ANYTHING and that's not good. I know it will balance itself out in the long run but sometimes you just gotta' step away from the game and let your mind reset itself.

 "I was always taught to respect my elders but it keeps getting harder and harder to find one."