dawkholiday
Posted: Sat, 07/12/2008 - 2:13pm

Since Ive been getting quite a few lately, I'm just gonna start posting em in this thread.

 

Tuesday Night -

Ace of spades 9 of spades dealt to me

Flop hits and its 2 spades drop, King, 8 , 7 of diamonds

Turn hits, my spade drops, I go all in...I get 1 caller, he has me covered

River hits, king drops again.

 

Flip em over....I have ace high flush...he hit his K-8-K for a fullhouse



dawkholiday
Wednesday NightThere
Posted: Sat, 07/12/2008 - 2:17pm

Wednesday Night

There were alot of shenanigan players this night, alot of people just going all in on crap. Well, I have made it to the final table calling some of these guys out. On to the hand...

Im dealt Pocket Kings, the guy across from me goes all in. I just had to call. He flips over A K. Flop drops and absolutely no face cards. Turn hits.....sigh its an Ace. I got ownd. It sucked LOL.



sparky8811
REFLECTION
Posted: Mon, 07/14/2008 - 5:49pm

   Here's the bad news Dawk.  In the first scenario it was YOU trying to apply the bad beat to the other player as he had flopped 2pair. You were a 1 in 5 chance to hit your flush IF you stay all the way to the river (all-in when it hits may well look like a steal/bluff to your opponent, you were asking to be called by ANY K-good kicker.)  Your opponent had 6 cards to draw to for the boat negating Any flush, and, HE had You Beat on the flop.  All-In is very risky EVERY time.  I would suggest betting your draw more modestly as any tells you have may give you more information as well as letting you get out at the river as you would HAVE to suspect him for 2 pair after he called flop and, turn bets.  Maybe even HE goes all-in on river letting you get off your inferior flush  (Pot odds say that you need 5 times the amount of the bet ALREADY in the pot to bet or, call any action on the flop 4 to the flush, 10 X the bet or call on the river for that FLUSH CHASE to be correct.) 

 Deserve's got nothin' to do with it.  Undecided

SPARKY8811,  Slayer of Minions



giftedmadness
not 1 in 5
Posted: Mon, 07/21/2008 - 7:28am

Actually he is a little better than 1 out of 3 times to win against his opp. on the flop.  He is 90% favorite after the turn, if he got his opp. to go all in with him he did his job.



giftedmadness
?
Posted: Mon, 07/21/2008 - 8:16am

were you there? He didn't say anything about any betting on the flop. It could have been check/check on the flop. Usually 4 to the flush on the flop is 9 outs, about 33% to hit by the river, not 20%.   Also, you WANT it to look like a bluff when you have the nuts ;-p, on any street.  



sparky8811
Bad Beat
Posted: Mon, 07/21/2008 - 12:52pm

   Don't need to have been there to know the definition of a bad beat.  Drawing to a flush against 2 pair is a bad beat not the other way around. Neither of these players were playing a stellar starting hand. Which is the normal bad beat scenario i.e. A A / K K losing to a small flush/strait drawing after being behind on the flop. (as dawk was)  Don't get me wrong I am a BIG believer of betting a hand like dawks on the flop, even if first to act, (bet your draws).  Just doesn't seem to be much of a bad beat is my only reason to respond.

 

  Slayer of Minions   

"Deserve's got nothin to do with it"

P.S. your 9 cards to come theory sounds good, but in all actuality you are assuming NO OTHER PLAYER HAS EVEN 1 SPADE, for that 33% shot you claim to have when in fact 1 in 4 of every card off the deck at that point should be a spade.  Realistically making your draw 1 in 5  20% ... Really it's not 9 out of 32 cards to come, it must be more like 6.3 of the 20 already dealt are spades and you are drawing to 3.6 of 32 possible on avg. per card flipped 1 in 10 each, turn, river, 1 in 10 twice viola 20%  TY TY no applause, just throw $$$



giftedmadness
incorrect
Posted: Wed, 07/23/2008 - 12:45am

Your analysis on flush draws being 20% to hit on the flop is incorrect.

Also, you don't know if it was checked by both players on the flop. If the guy with two pair checked the flop, then how can it be a bad beat if his opponent hits his draw while getting a free card? Also, there aren't 6 outs to hit his full house, there are 4 outs. Even if the flop was bet, 33% to hit is less of a bad beat than 9%. Also, we don't know what type of betting was done on the flop. Hitting a 4 outter when your opponent goes all in on the turn is definitely a bad beat.

AA/KK losing to 3,4 suited (whether all-in preflop or against str8 or flush draws and against str8 & flush draws) is less of a bad beat than what happened in the above hand.

I'm curious - what book did you read to learn about pot odds and counting outs?

 Also, if hitting a 4 outter after the turn isn't a bad beat, are you saying that only 2 outters are bad beats?



giftedmadness
betting draws
Posted: Wed, 07/23/2008 - 12:41am

"Don't get me wrong I am a BIG believer of betting a hand like dawks on the flop, even if first to act, (bet your draws)."

 

who said anything about betting draws?  All he says is that he went all-in after the turn when he made his flush. 



dawkholiday
yeah......i wasnt shooting
Posted: Wed, 07/23/2008 - 12:06pm

yeah......i wasnt shooting for a discussion like this, or a definition of what a bad beat really is. just my pissed off moments i end up with and feel like posting lol, is that a better title?



sparky8811
Books, books, and, more books
Posted: Sun, 07/27/2008 - 5:28pm

   You're getting uptight gifted one and we are playing semantics, for little legitamate gain.  The books I have read include, but are not limited to   Winning low limit holdem by Lee Jones ... Complete idiots guide to poker by Andrew N.S. Glazer  ...  Poker the real deal by Phil Gordon ... I am currently slogging my way through The theory of games and economic behavior by VonNeuman ...  As well as countless articles from bluff magazine, and, cardplayer magazine.  On my next up list is Mike Caro's book of tells and Gus Hansons hand for hand analysis of his Aussie Millions win.  Feel free to recomend some YOU like, MY favs are Phil Gordon (easy read)+Any Article by Roy Cook.

 Slayer of Minions

Deserve's got nothin' to do with it

P.S. I can't remember per say Whom the authors were, I did have 2 books at the same time 1 showing a 40% sucees rate ,and, the other showing a 20% rate to catch your flush when you are 4 cards to it on the flop.   Even the "pros" disagree, lets not have a cage match over this drivel. XOXOXO  sparky 



Reddog
What are the odds?
Posted: Wed, 07/30/2008 - 1:14am

Being away from the Poker Pub for the summer, I've played some with friends and a lot of Full Tilt, which is fun. You can play for money or pride. (Free chips.) You can play 6, 9, 18 or 90 person games. I usually play 18 or 90. You can play for $250, $2000, $10,000 or even more. If you get into the top 2 or 3, you do quite well, especially if you play the 90 games. I have gotten quite a few 1st, 2nds and 3rds playing for various amounts. I started with the $250 games and worked up to more, and built the money to over $400,000. Doesn't mean much, since it is not real money, but neither is the Poker Pub's.

I got into a $250 18 person game last night and won it. Well, I thought, I'll see if I can win another one. It was getting late, so I got into another $250 game because I didn't care if I lost that much. On one of the first hands, I got nailed with Big Slick suited against K 6 offsuit, with a 6 on the River, of course. A 93-7% shot. OK, I thought, that was a short one, so I'll try one more.

Now, calculate the total odds on hands that knocked me out. I know the individual odds, but collectively. It will give you math wizards a project:

Game 3: A 9 against Q 9. 2 9s hit the board by the Turn. A Q on the River. 93-7%. I had to try another game. This could not go on like this much longer. I thought.

Game 4: I have AQ. A Q hits the board on the flop. I raise big, then again on the turn. Player calls all the way down. He has 2 8s. What do you suppose hits on the River? You got it. An 8 for a 95-5% shot.

Game 5: I have an AJ. An Ace hits on the flop. I bet big. One caller all the way. They have J2. What come on the last 2 cards. You guessed it. J2. I don't even want to try to calculate that runner runner, but the 2 on the River was a 93-7% shot.

Now it was getting comical. I looked around to see if someone was playing some kind of cyber trick. It was past 2 a.m. and time for bed. I'd try again tomorrow.

First game: I have A 8 of Diamonds and am short stacked and raise. Guy on my left raises me all in. I call. He has 72 of spades. Guess what he flops? A flush. I know that is a 13% hance.

Can't give up now, this has to change. So try another one:

I have garbage for a long stretch, then get Big Slick suited. I raise, call 2 all-in bets and there is another Big Slick and an AJ. I know immediately that the AJ will win, just not sure how. Of course, he does, with Broadway on the River. A 91-9% shot to hit a Queen.

I still have a few chips, get Big Slick next hand against AQ. What does he get on the River? Guess. Another 93-7% shot.

Next game I get KJ of spades the first hand and raise. 2 callers. J66 hits the board. Check around to me. I bet fairly big. 2 callers. A trash card hits. I bet again. 1 caller. The River? An Ace. Of course, he has an Ace and another 93-7%.

In none of those games did I get into the money, and I had been making it about 80 to 90% of the time. I tried one more  before bedtime and finally made it to the top 4 in an 18 game, so got some money. The knock-out hand? I have QJ, short stacked and go all in against an A6. I hit a Q on the turn, but I know what's coming. You guessed right again.

Another 93-7% shot. So, put that all together. I was over a 90% favorite in all but one of those hands, and won none.

Shouldn't you win maybe half of them, or more? 

Figure the odds of that happening. It has to be pretty slim. 



Reddog
What are the odds?
Posted: Wed, 07/30/2008 - 1:15am

Being away from the Poker Pub for the summer, I've played some with friends and a lot of Full Tilt, which is fun. You can play for money or pride. (Free chips.) You can play 6, 9, 18 or 90 person games. I usually play 18 or 90. You can play for $250, $2000, $10,000 or even more. If you get into the top 2 or 3, you do quite well, especially if you play the 90 games. I have gotten quite a few 1st, 2nds and 3rds playing for various amounts. I started with the $250 games and worked up to more, and built the money to over $400,000. Doesn't mean much, since it is not real money, but neither is the Poker Pub's.

I got into a $250 18 person game last night and won it. Well, I thought, I'll see if I can win another one. It was getting late, so I got into another $250 game because I didn't care if I lost that much. On one of the first hands, I got nailed with Big Slick suited against K 6 offsuit, with a 6 on the River, of course. A 93-7% shot. OK, I thought, that was a short one, so I'll try one more.

Now, calculate the total odds on hands that knocked me out. I know the individual odds, but collectively. It will give you math wizards a project:

Game 3: A 9 against Q 9. 2 9s hit the board by the Turn. A Q on the River. 93-7%. I had to try another game. This could not go on like this much longer. I thought.

Game 4: I have AQ. A Q hits the board on the flop. I raise big, then again on the turn. Player calls all the way down. He has 2 8s. What do you suppose hits on the River? You got it. An 8 for a 95-5% shot.

Game 5: I have an AJ. An Ace hits on the flop. I bet big. One caller all the way. They have J2. What come on the last 2 cards. You guessed it. J2. I don't even want to try to calculate that runner runner, but the 2 on the River was a 93-7% shot.

Now it was getting comical. I looked around to see if someone was playing some kind of cyber trick. It was past 2 a.m. and time for bed. I'd try again tomorrow.

First game: I have A 8 of Diamonds and am short stacked and raise. Guy on my left raises me all in. I call. He has 72 of spades. Guess what he flops? A flush. I know that is a 13% hance.

Can't give up now, this has to change. So try another one:

I have garbage for a long stretch, then get Big Slick suited. I raise, call 2 all-in bets and there is another Big Slick and an AJ. I know immediately that the AJ will win, just not sure how. Of course, he does, with Broadway on the River. A 91-9% shot to hit a Queen.

I still have a few chips, get Big Slick next hand against AQ. What does he get on the River? Guess. Another 93-7% shot.

Next game I get KJ of spades the first hand and raise. 2 callers. J66 hits the board. Check around to me. I bet fairly big. 2 callers. A trash card hits. I bet again. 1 caller. The River? An Ace. Of course, he has an Ace and another 93-7%.

In none of those games did I get into the money, and I had been making it about 80 to 90% of the time. I tried one more  before bedtime and finally made it to the top 4 in an 18 game, so got some money. The knock-out hand? I have QJ, short stacked and go all in against an A6. I hit a Q on the turn, but I know what's coming. You guessed right again.

Another 93-7% shot. So, put that all together. I was over a 90% favorite in all but one of those hands, and won none.

Shouldn't you win maybe half of them, or more? 

Figure the odds of that happening. It has to be pretty slim. 



Reddog
What are the odds?
Posted: Wed, 07/30/2008 - 2:03am

Being away from the Poker Pub for the summer, I've played some with friends and a lot of Full Tilt, which is fun. You can play for money or pride. (Free chips.) You can play 6, 9, 18 or 90 person games. I usually play 18 or 90. You can play for $250, $2000, $10,000 or even more. If you get into the top 2 or 3, you do quite well, especially if you play the 90 games. I have gotten quite a few 1st, 2nds and 3rds playing for various amounts. I started with the $250 games and worked up to more, and built the money to over $400,000. Doesn't mean much, since it is not real money, but neither is the Poker Pub's.

I got into a $250 18 person game last night and won it. Well, I thought, I'll see if I can win another one. It was getting late, so I got into another $250 game because I didn't care if I lost that much. On one of the first hands, I got nailed with Big Slick suited against K 6 offsuit, with a 6 on the River, of course. A 93-7% shot. OK, I thought, that was a short one, so I'll try one more.

Now, calculate the total odds on hands that knocked me out. I know the individual odds, but what are they collectively. It will give you math wizards a project:

Game 3: A 9 against Q 9. 2 9s hit the board by the Turn. A Q on the River. 93-7%. I had to try another game. This could not go on like this much longer. I thought.

Game 4: I have AQ. A Q hits the board on the flop. I raise big, then again on the turn. Player calls all the way down. He has 2 8s. What do you suppose hits on the River? You got it. An 8 for a 95-5% shot.

Game 5: I have an AJ. An Ace hits on the flop. I bet big. One caller all the way. They have J2. What came on the last 2 cards. You guessed it. J2. I don't even want to try to calculate that runner runner, but the 2 on the River was a 93-7% shot, although he had 5 outs which made his chances about 11%.

Now it was getting comical. I looked around to see if someone was playing some kind of cyber trick. It was past 2 a.m. and time for bed. I'd try again tomorrow.

First game next day: I have A 8 of Diamonds and am short stacked and raise. Guy on my left raises me all in. I call. He has 72 of spades. Guess what he flops? A flush. Of course. I know that is a 13% chance.

Can't give up now, this has to change. So try another one:

I have garbage for a long stretch, then get Big Slick suited. I raise, call 2 all-in bets and there is another Big Slick and an AJ. I know immediately that the AJ will win, just not sure how. Of course, he does, with Broadway on the River. Figure that one out. There was an A K and 10 on the board, then a 91-9% shot to hit a Queen. Does that blow your mind?

I still have a few chips, get Big Slick next hand against AQ. What does he get on the River? Guess. Another 93-7% shot.

Next game I get KJ of spades the first hand and raise. 2 callers. J66 hits the board. Check around to me. I bet fairly big. 2 callers. A trash card hits. I bet again. 1 caller. The River? An Ace. Of course, he has an Ace and another 93-7%.

In none of those games did I get into the money, and I had been making it about 80 to 90% of the time. I tried one more  before bedtime and finally made it to the top 4 in an 18 game, so got some money. The knock-out hand? I have QJ, short stacked and go all in against an A6. I hit a Q on the turn, but I know what's coming. You guessed right again.

Another 93-7% shot. So, put that all together. I was over a 90% favorite in all but one of those hands, and won none.

Shouldn't you win maybe half of them, or more? 

Figure the odds of that happening. It has to be pretty slim. 



Reddog
And yet more:
Posted: Wed, 07/30/2008 - 2:53am

The adventure continues:

Another game from earlier today, July 29:

Almost forgot this one: I had QJ suited. Flop comes QJ10. Top 2 pair, so I bet fairly big. I get raised all-in. Gotta call. The guy had flopped a straight with K9 in his hand. Add that one in with the rest, and . . .

The final one of the wee hours of the night: I truly am getting paranoid after this one, and will check all the closets and under the bed.

I get down to the money. 4 left out of 18. I have KJ of Clubs on the button. I raise when it gets to me. Big blind reraises me all in. Might as well, I thought. He has 9s. A coin flip.  A king hits the flop. A jack hits the turn. Not a coin flip any more. I'm gonna double up and then some. Oh boy.  Take a wild guess what hits the River. ANOTHER 2 outer, and ANOTHER 95-5 shot.

Now go ahead and say "That's poker" and it's the luck of the draw, but if these examples of a 1 day horrible streak aren't just a little unusual, what is? They say you get your money in with the best of it and you'll win in the long run, but how do you beat this? It's truly incredible.



Shortround
I don't know if this makes you feel better but...
Posted: Wed, 07/30/2008 - 8:01am

You might want to read my post on the "It's not just Holdem that's Sick" forum. At least you know you have company.

"I was always taught to respect my elders but it keeps getting harder and harder to find one."